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East Asia?
Given the comparative rates of economic development between North America, Europe, and East Asia; as well as the demographics (pre-life extension), is it not likely that China and the rest of East Asia is likely to be as technologically advanced as the West in the next 40 years or so?
Much of the speculative SF (i.e. Accelerando, Pandora's Star, etc.) portrays a very Western-centric world. Given the rise of China (and to a lesser extent, India) and the push in Japan and South Korea to develop robotics and automation in all of its forms, is it not likely that transhuman-tech is as likely to be developed in Asia as anywhere else?
Space settlement: The overseas Chinese (kakkyo) live in almost every major city in the world, creating Chinatowns. The Chinese not only invented networking 4,000 years ago and are natural-born entrepreneurs, but they are more willing to immigrate to nasty places (e.g. Papua New Guinea) in order to pursue opportunity than even Americans. This, along with the intense urbanization in Asia (Shanghai, HK, Tokyo), suggests to me that they would make more eager space colonists than westerners, particularly Europeans, who live comfortable lives in the West.
I won't even mention that transhuman themes (space colonization, robots) are a common theme in Japanese and Chinese manga.
Much of the speculative SF (i.e. Accelerando, Pandora's Star, etc.) portrays a very Western-centric world. Given the rise of China (and to a lesser extent, India) and the push in Japan and South Korea to develop robotics and automation in all of its forms, is it not likely that transhuman-tech is as likely to be developed in Asia as anywhere else?
Space settlement: The overseas Chinese (kakkyo) live in almost every major city in the world, creating Chinatowns. The Chinese not only invented networking 4,000 years ago and are natural-born entrepreneurs, but they are more willing to immigrate to nasty places (e.g. Papua New Guinea) in order to pursue opportunity than even Americans. This, along with the intense urbanization in Asia (Shanghai, HK, Tokyo), suggests to me that they would make more eager space colonists than westerners, particularly Europeans, who live comfortable lives in the West.
I won't even mention that transhuman themes (space colonization, robots) are a common theme in Japanese and Chinese manga.
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Stephen Moorhouse on
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I guess in SF much of that is down to choosing whether its easier and more practical for the author to write fiction based on a society they know as opposed to guessing or interpreting the cultures of others.
I would disagree with you saying they are natural-boring entrepreneurs. I think that a lot of it is embedded in the social set-up, and that transfers into business too. Referring to your first point, while a technology such as the Unimate was first produced for General Motors, it was first employed en masse outside of the US, and that is down to businessmen to understand the practical implications and potential benefits over their rivals from risking money investing in that kind of capital. Entrepreneurs who can see where technology is heading and the potential market dominance for being some of the first investors in it are likely to be the ones who have the say on where technological dominance lies on a global level, as it's not so important who develops the technology, but who employs it.
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Permalink Reply by Christopher on
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The Chinese genetic/cultural material has been extremely successful...If there were over a billion Americans and America was as old as China you can bet they would be all over the map too. Given they sheer numbers it would be natural to find more emigrants, more entrepreneurs, more eager space colonists, more everything. I wouldn't say Europeans live "comfortably in the West". If that were the case, you wouldn't have seen the colonial expansion that gave rise to North America, Australia, New Zealand, etc. I think Asia's economic and technological power will eclipse that of the West as America seems to be teetering on the edge of collapse given the trade deficit, personal debt of Americans, and a mulititude of other factors that make America's hegemony less tenable. The age of the Great American Empire is coming to an end. Good morning.
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Permalink Reply by Kurt Schoedel on
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Even though I am very positive on the future of East Asia, I think America will do just fine for the forseeable future. The major financial tidal wave that will hit us is the retirement of the boomers. The SS and medicare liabilities are definitely not properly accounted for in any budgeting. Realize this is more of an insolvancy problem as opposed to a bankruptcy situation. Unlike Enron, the U.S. feds have lots and lots of assets (they own about 85% of Arizona and Nevada, for example), around $40 trillion worth.Despite lots of psychotic raving (from both the left and the right) the feds will eventually suck up and start to sell off assets in order to finance the retirement of the boomers. Needless to say, this will put a serious crimp in overseas adventurism (our wonderful interventionist foreign policy - the war to end all wars - spread democracy - all sort of such horse pucky), also despite lots of psychotic raving on the part of both the left and the right.
The feds will eventually run out of assets to sell, around 2050 or so. By this time the boomers will either be rejuvenated (thus obsoleting SS and medicare) or well all be dead. Either way, the problem will go away.
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I think the role of religion in inhibiting the development of the GRIN technologies is over-hyped. People want to live longer, healthier lives (look at vitamin sales, growth in plastic surgery) and are willing to spend money in pursuit of this. I don't think that the religions are going to be very effective at stopping or slowing the development of these technologies. They have not even been effective at overturning Roe vs. Wade, despite their relentless ranting and raving on this issue.
Also, consider that Europeans are essentially atheists and that their attitudes towards GRIN and other technologies is much more negative than most Americans (at least this has been my personal experience), who do claim to believe in religion.
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The effects of religion on the development of these technologies in the West will be mostly limited to reproductive issues (designer babies, exowombs, etc.). If you look at their websites, most of their rhetoric is targeted on reproductive issues. Self-enhancement by competent adults is considered a "lost" issue by most (not all) of these people.
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Permalink Reply by Dan on -
China then may have an advantage - the one child policy seems to promote parents to place a great deal of pressure on their child to succeed. If gene therapy / enhancement were widely available then some (if not all) parents would seek to take advantage of it.
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Permalink Reply by Kemos on
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I predict that the majority of early transhumanist progress will be made by Japan. The problem with America is that although church and state are separate, religion and state are not. It will be very difficult for hyper-progressives to push legislation to allow for any kind of real transhumanist progress. We will just have to rely on capitalism for now.
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Permalink Reply by Peregryn on
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Never mind China, what about India?
India has a massive population, just shy of China, and growing much faster than China's (it is also a stable enough of a democracy that there won't be any sort of one-child policy would not fly) Not only this, but the Indians have a growth rate that is comparable to China's as well as a much better education system, they are also only outnumbered in the number of PhDs in their workforce by the US(something that will change very quickly as soon as its rapidly growing middle class becomes large enough), which is why it is one of the world leaders in biotech at the moment.
Within 40 years India will be in a position, that coupled with population pressures, should likely lead it becoming the world capital of high-technology, and likely the world's first trans-human society. They have already proven that they are quite open to new technologies, being the first and most enthusiastic of the adopters of biotech crops outside of America, before even Europe.
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Permalink Reply by Dan on
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Perhaps, I must admit I'm not at all up to date with Indian politics - so take my comments 'with a pinch of salt'.
I don't get the impression from the media that India has a stable government and I think they have several diametrically opposed factions, plus last time I checked, they were a 3rd world country.
From the recent calls for the execution of Richard Gear after he kissed the Indian celebrity Shilpa Shetty on TV I get the impression that the Indian people aren't all that liberal.
Even if I'm wrong and India is a very stable, liberal democracy, it still borders with Pakistan - another 3rd world country in which women are 2nd class citizens and human-rights violations are a regular occurrence - and I haven't even mentioned the word terrorism.
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While their are a few moderately aggressive factions in India, to my knowledge the two major political problems are the revolutionarily spirited Communist Party(most likely connected to China) and rebels in the north-eastern region of Assam. However, given the proportion of the population affected by these, not a large percentage at all, and the fact that the cities are very stable and dynamic, by comparison, these issues are a result of the very size of India and the fact that it is, yes, still a third world nation, albeit well on its way to becoming a post-industrial nation. And this is the point I am making, India is not there yet, the majority of the population is still agrarian, but that is very quickly changing over the next decade. The Indian economy is diversifying rapidly into tertiary industries, as opposed to secondary industries as seen in China, (which means its economy looks more like that of modern Europe and America now than even 30 years ago) and is educating more and more of its people each generation, something China is lagging behind quite disturbingly, remember, Communists do not value education.
Regarding the kiss, while it demonstrates India's conservative culture, it does not, however, mean that they are not open to technology, the Indian people have a very strong idea of propriety in terms of how men and women treat each other, they do not objectify women as objects and do not consider it right for people to publicly display affection in such a manner, and if you look at videos of the event, Gear pretty much forced himself onto Ms. Shetty. What he did was both stupid and disrespectful, not to mention completely unmindful of the cultural norms of the society he was in. It would be like not following conventions of courtesy in Japan.
Regarding India's geo-political situation and specifically Pakistan. For the most part, Islamic extremists are unconcerned with fighting a Jihad against their Hindu neighbour, especially since India currently has the second-largest Muslim population in the world out of any other country in the world. They are happy there too, and besides, Pakistan and India were once part of a single country under British rule, Pakistanis and Indians have family members across that border, despite their religious beliefs they don't want to blow them up. Pakistan and India are close to working out a peace agreement anyways.
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There is another reason why i think we all need to be interested in East Asia. We don't have O'neill space colonies yet (despite being promised them in the late 70's). This means that if our worse nightmares become real (that the west become totally luddite or something like that), we will all end up in Shanghai or some sh*t like that.
There is historical precidence for this. I ran into some Russian-speaking people during my first visit to Shanghai. I later found out that many "white" Russians when there following the bolshevik take over of Russian in 1918. They (the white Russians) lived in Shanghai and were pretty much left alone ever sense. Now you and I all know that Shanghai has gone through a lot of nasty history during 20Cen. The Japanese occupation, the communist takeover, the great leap into no-where, and the cultural devolution. Thats alot of history to go through and not get f**ked during all that time.
You see, the Chinese let you in and do your own business as long as you do not try to convert the Chinese into doing what you do. This sounds like a decent deal to me if we end up getting our arse's chased out of the west (because all the other people can't handle what we are into). It certainly beats ending up in a nursing home followed by death.
Now, I have lived as expat; first in Kanto area (Tokyo), followed by Kaoshoung and penang; and the experience was quite fine by me. So, if the worse comes to worse, we end up in Shanghai for the next 40 year or so, until we get our rejuvenation and get out into space (or something like that).
Now do you understand my obsession with East Asia? Besides, I enjoyed it there and my wife is Japanese.
BTW, Shanghai, like Tokyo, is shaping up to be quite the partying place.
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